PSG Newsletter Fall 1998

    Every year PSG sponsors separate undergraduate and graduate student paper competitions. Winners receive a $100 prize, an engraved plaque, a ticket to the AAG awards banquet at the annual meeting, and formal recognition at the banquet and in the AAG newsletter. It is up to you to ensure we have a number of high quality submissions.
    The Requirements for this competition are as follows: (1) the topic must be on some aspect of population geography; (2) the paper must have been written while the student was enrolled at a college or university, and completed between January 1998 and February 1999; (3) the text portion should be double-spaced and not exceed 20 pages; total paper length should not exceed 30 pages; (4) the student author (not the professor) should submit three copies of the paper to the appropriate committee chair (listed below) no later than February 15, 1999; (5) the student should provide a means of contact (e-mail or phone number) along with the name of the school, department, and the professor who taught the class or supervised the research.
    Papers will be judged by two panels of experts within the PSG. For the undergraduate competition, send papers to: Ines Miyares, Department of Geography, Hunter College-CUNY, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10021. For the graduate competition, send papers to: John Cromartie, Economic Research Service, USDA, Room 2087, 180 M Street, Washington, D.C. 20036-5831. If you have questions, please contact John Cromartie at: jbc@econ.ag.gov or (202) 694-5421 (This article was written by John Cromartie.)

Two Recent Court Decisions Rule Against the Use of Sampling for the 2000 U.S. Census

    On August 24, 1998 a federal court in Washington, D.C. invalidated the Census Bureau's plans to use statistical sampling for the 2000 Census. It responded to a lawsuit filed by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The three judge panel did not rule directly on the constitutionality of sampling, but said its use "to determine the population for purposes of apportioning representatives in Congress among the states violates the Census Act." On Setember 25, 1998 a second panel of federal judges in Virginia again rejected the Clinton administration's plan to use a statistical sampling method for counting people in the Census. This decision agreed with a conservative public-interest law firm that claimed in a lawsuit that scrapping the actual head count method used since 1790 would be illegal. The court said that the 1976 Census Act expressly prohibits statistical sampling for the purpose of apportioning congressional seats.
The Census Bureau had prefered to use a traditional head count by mailings and door-to-door surveys for 90 percent of the population in the 2000 Census. The sampling would be used to estimate the remaining 10 percent, the component most difficult to enumerate. Minorities and inner-city residents are disproportionately represented among this hard-to-measure remaining tenth of the population.
    At issue is far more than the accuracy of sampling in the census held every 10 years. Billions of dollars in federal funds are allocated on the basis of how many people live in each state and city, and shifts in population can lead to the redrawing of House districts.
    The use of sampling procedures has become a political issue because it would probably better represent minorities and poor people, both of whom tend to vote disproportionately in favor of Democratic Party candidates. So the Clinton administration supports the use of sampling techniques for the hard-to-reach 10 percent, while the Republican-controlled House of Representatives does not. (Herald Staff and Wire Reports, "Sampling for Census Rejected by Court," The Miami Herald, August 25, 1998, p. 1A; and "Another Court Panel Rejects Sampling Method for Census, The Miami Herald, September 27, 1998, p. 11A.)

PSG Announces the Winners of Its
Student Travel Awards

The following three graduate students are recipients of PSG's $100 cash prizes for attending the forthcoming AAG meetings in Honolulu, Hawaii:

David Carr University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Ronald E. Cossman University of Colorado
Jamie Strickland University of Georgia

Population Geography Chapter in the Second Edition of Geography in America
by Gaile and Willmott

    Pat Gober and Jim Tyner are soliciting representative articles of major trends in population geography. This is to faciliate their writing of the chapter on population geography in the forthcoming "Geography in America" volume, edited by Gary Gaile and Cort Willmott. Pat's and Jim's mission is to identify the new, and major, directions in poulation geography.
    Pat and Jim are asking all population geographers to provide to them. reprints and/or citations of representative work. Articles focusing, broadly, on internal migration, residential mobility, international and transnational migration, fertility, policy, and regional demographic variability should be sent to Pat. Articles focusing, broadly, on immigrant assimilation, acculturation, ethnic enclaves, race, gender, and social theory should be sent to Jim. If you are unsure where to send papers, please consult via e-mail with either Pat or Jim.
    Jim and Pat stress that they are confronted with a very strict page limit. As such, although providing a very broad overview, they are also compelled to focus on dominant trends in population geography, and will be unable to include every article written during the 1990s. They will ultimately determine how particular articles fit into the larger context of the chapter's final organization.
Please send your comments and suggestions to: Patricia Gober, Department of Geography, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287-0104, Phone: (603) 965-7533, Fax: (602) 965-8313, e-mail: gober@asu.edu or to James A. Tyner, Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio 44242, Phone: (330) 672-7863, Fax: (330) 672-4304, e-mail: jtyner@kent.edu. (This article was written by James A. Tyner, Department of Geography, Kent State University.)

Population Census Teaching Module Developed by PSG's Eugene Turner

    During the summer of 1998, a group of social science professors from several campuses in the California State University system established a set of web-based instructional modules. Seven modules, plus supporting materials including a discussion of statistics, are near completion and it is hoped that new modules may be added in the future to the list. The modules contain topical discussions, exercises, and accompanying databases available as SPSS export files which may be downloaded to a local site.
    Although most of these modules are based on data stored at the California State University Social Sciences Database Archive housed at C.S.U., Los Angeles, the module databases may be downloaded by anyone. One of these modules, Exploring the U.S. Census, may be of value to those teaching population and demography courses. This module contains seven chapters, six databases, and thirteen appendices.
    Chapter 1 is a general discussion of the census, focusing on population and housing. It introduces the two major data tabulations: Summary Tape Files and the Public-Use Microdata Sample. Additional detail on the data structure of these files and on files stored in the social science archive are found in the module's Appendix A.
    Chapter 2 introduces the use of the census for making basic tabulations. Here a set of population data can be used to describe the city of Glendale, California. In another example, all cities are ranked on a census variable (population density) to evaluate extreme cases. A third example encourages the use of mapping to examine data distributions. An accompanying appendix provides a basic introduction to Arcview software (which is available to all campuses in the CSU system).
    Chapter 3 presents a few basic measures of population characteristics including the sex ratio, location quotient, and entropy index. A second section introduces the use of scattergrams, correlation, and regression. Chapter 4 covers methods of describing the age of populations, including a description of dependency ratios and population pyramids. Chapter 5 examines population growth. This includes a discussion of the demographic equation, and measures of births, deaths, and migration. Chapter 6 investigates a few methods used in describing service areas and measures of population centers. Chapter 7 is more of a demonstration of how PUMS data can be used. Tables present income and occupation differences for different ethnic groups.
    For chapters 2 through 7 there are exercises related to the presented topics. These exercises are linked to the six data sets provided with the module. These data include selected variables for all cities and all counties in the United States. Two data sets are based on census tracts in the cities of Burbank and Glendale, California, whereas another contains migration data compiled by the California Department of Finance. A final (and the largest) data set contains all values for a single Public-Use Microdata Area (Burbank) in California.

These modules are available to the general public at: http://www.csubak.edu/ssric/.
(This article was written by Eugene Turner, Department of Geography, California State University at Northridge.)

Number of Questions to be Asked in the 2000 Census to be Fewest in 180 Years

    The short-form questionnaire proposed by the U.S. Census Bureau to Congress will contain the fewest questions, seven, since 1820 (when U.S. marshals took the census on horseback). The long- form questionnaire will include 52 questions. For the 1990 Census, the short-form had 13 questions and the long-form had 57.
    The Census 2000 questionnaire includes only one new subject, referring to grandparents as care-givers. This is a tree-part question, mandated by a 1996 law, that is designed to distinguish between households in which a grandparent temporarily provides a home for a grandchild for a few weeks or months and households in which the grandparent provides a home for a grandchild on a more permanent basis.
    One question that has been changed since 1990 is the one on race. This question, which is to be answered by the whole population (so it will be contained both on the short- and long-form questionnaires), conforms to the revised standards for racial classifications announced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this past October. The OMB standards permit respondents to report more than one race, but this has created questions as to how multiple responses to the race question should be tabulated.

Educational Attainment of "Young" African Americans Now Equal to that of American Whites

Eighty-six percent of African Americans aged 25-29 years (the so-called "young") were high school graduates in 1997, continuing an upward trend in the educational attainment of African Americans that began in 1940. The gap in high school completion rates between African Americans and whites narrowed, for those in the 25-29 year age group, over the past decade to the point where there was no statistically significant difference in 1997. This finding does not mean that all Blacks have caught up with Whites in terms of their educational attainment because they have not; it is only the "young" Blacks who have done so. When all Blacks are compared with all Whites over the age of 25 years, 83 percent of the Whites completed high school; whereas only 75 percent of the Blacks have finished high school. In addition, 25 percent of all Whites have completed four years of college; whereas, only 13 percent of Blacks have a bachelor's degree.
Furthermore, "young" Blacks have caught up with "young" Whites only in terms of high school completion rates. When college completion rates are compared, whereas 29 percent of all "young" Whites have graduated with a bachelor's degree, only 14 percent of Blacks aged 25-29 years have attained the same academic degree. For more information see: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Educational Attainment in the United States: March 1997, Current Population Reports, 1998.

Do "Young" women Surpass "Young" Men in Educational Attainment
in the United States?

In 1997, the educational attainment levels of women aged 25-29 years exceed those of men in the same age group. At the high school completion level, 89 percent of the young women and 86 percent of the young men had diplomas in 1997. Young women also led at the college completion level, 29 percent to 26 percent, respectively.
For the total population ages 25 years and over, high school completion rates for men and women were not statistically different (they were both 82 percent). Men still have an overall edge in college completion, 26 percent to 22 percent.
Among the 50 states, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, Washington, and Montana (in this order) have the highest high school graduate rates. Whereas West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky have the lowest rates, respectively. Regionally, high school completion levels were highest in the Midwest (85 percent) and lowest in the South (79 percent). The Northeast (27 percent) and West (26 percent) had the highest proportions of their populations with bachelor's degrees. By 1997, almost one-fourth (24 percent) of all American adults had attained at least a bachelor's degree.
The degree to which higher education levels pay dividends, in terms of higher incomes, is shown in the table below:

Average Incomes for Persons 18 Years and Older by Educational Attainment Levels 1996
Educational Attainment	Incomes
No High School Degree	$15,011
High School Degree	$22,154
Bachelor's Degree	$38,112
Graduate Degree	$61,317
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Educational Attainment in the United States: March 1997, Current Population Reports, 1998.

U.S. Census Bureau Releases 1997 Version of the Statistical Abstract of the United States

    A CD-ROM version of this year's Statistical Abstract of the United States is available with a number of useful features not available in the book version. The CD-ROM's 1,700 tables and graphs provide a detailed statistical profile of the nation's population and economy, covering thousands of subjects. The disc, operating on MacIntosh, Windows, or UNIX platforms, contains not only document-quality images of the tables in the book version, but also links to federal government Internet sites where users may obtain table updates.
    Spreadsheet files are linked to each table, showing all the data in the table, plus data for additional years or additional geographic entities, and greater subject detail. These files, which allow users to do customized sorting and tabulating, are now available in both Lotus and Excel formats.
An Adobe Acrobat search engine permits users to enter a word or phrase and find all the tables where that word or phrase appears. There are direct links from the table of contents to each section heading. And the maps and charts have links to their source tables.
    The CD-ROM may be purchased from the Census Bureau's Customer Services Branch for $50. The book may be bought from The National Technical Information Service (paperback $33, hardback $39). The telephone for the later source is (703) 487-4650 and the Census Bureau's number is (202) 512-1800.

Seminar and Open Forum to Be Held for Users and Producers of Metropolitan Area and Nonmetropolitan Area Data on January 21 & 22, 1999

PSG member James Fitzsimmons provides notice that the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) is hosting a conference on the use and production of Metropolitan Area and Nonmetropolitan area data in Alexandria on January 21-22, 1999. Agenda topics include:

An overview and history of the official designation of metropolitan areas and the Metropolitan Area Standards Review Project.
Review of findings from the 1995 "Conference on New approaches to Defining Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas."
Discussion of alternative approaches and criteria for defining metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, including full national territory coverage, county and subcounty level classifications, and methods of measuring metropolitan and nonmetropolitan integration.

An open forum for expressing views to the Office of Management and Budget on the review of the metropolitan area standards and proposed alternatives.

The cost of registering for the seminar is $95. For a registration form and more information contact COPAFS at (703) 836-0404 or copafs@aol.com.

What's Happening to Marriage in East Asia?

    Everywhere in the world, attitudes toward marriage and family life are changing. Young people are waiting later to marry and have children. Some are choosing not to marry at all. The cultural values dominant in East Asia may have slowed the changes in attitude toward marriage that are apparent in the West, but there are signs that similar changes are occurring there.
    Postponement of marriage in East Asia has brought birth rates to unprecedented low levels, raising serious concerns about the size of the future workforce. A dramatic extension of the period between childhood and marriage has created a proportionately large population of "young singles." A recent study of this topic was undertaken by the East-West Center's Program on Population that concentrated its efforts on three contrasting societies Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Fertility in Japan has been at below the replacement level since the mid-1970s, reaching 1.4 children per woman in 1995, and it is still declining. In South Korea, total fertility is also well below replacement; while in the United States it is also slightly below replacement (with a total fertility rate of 2.0).
    Despite marked differences in the cultures of the United States on the one hand and Japan and South Korea on the other, and despite South Korea's much more recent industrialization, all three countries show similar broad patterns of changing attitudes toward marriage. Young people are consistently less likely than their parents to express positive attitudes about marriage or traditional views on gender roles. These differences between age groups suggest that the current trends toward changing values will continue into the future.
    Recently, several authors have suggested that birth rates in developed societies will only return to replacement levels when women and men achieve full equality within the family. As long as young women must expect to carry a heavier workload (by both working and raising children) than their husbands, they are likely to feel ambivalent about marriage and motherhood.
Policymakers in Japan and South Korea might counter attitudes associated with low fertility by making employment conditions more favorable to married women; for instance, by providing part-time positions with employee benefits and by initiating high-quality childcare programs for working mothers. Also, planners might consider modifying the academic examination systems in these countries to relieve the pressure on parents to provide expensive after-school academic programs for their children.
(This article is excerpted from: "What's Happening to Marriage in East Asia?" Asia-Pacific Population and Policy, July 1998, Number 46. Available from: www.ewc.hawaii.edu)

Demographic Software Program Developed

DemoGraphics '96 is a software package for easy retrieval, display, and animation of population data. It can be used to study population trends for all countries and major regions worldwide. The software, which runs under MS-Windows 95 & NT, includes data from the 1996 revision of the United Nations World Population Assessments and Projections from 1950 to 2050.
DemoGraphics '96 was developed for the United Nations Population Fund in association with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute by Gerhard K. Heilig. For more information visit the following website: http://home.earthlink.net/~gkheilig/
(This article is excerpted from: BSPS News, British Society for Population Studies, Issue No. 58, August 1998, p. 3.)

The British Society for Population Studies Announces Plans to Produce Two New Ethnicity Volumes

    Four volumes of analyses based on the United Kingdom's 1991 Census ethnic group question have been published in recent years in a special series sponsored by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). These analyses have provided a comprehensive and detailed cross-sectional picture of the U.K.'s different ethnic minority populations in 1991.
    Two new volumes are planned. The first will be edited by geographer Ceri Peach and it deals with the ethnic minority population of Great Britain. Sixteen researchers have been invited to work with longitudinal data, with the goal of being able to present their results on the longitudinal aspects of ethnicity during a series of forthcoming seminars. The papers will be published as chapters in this new volume.
    The second new volume will be edited by John Haskey and will contain chapters written by both academic specialists and ONS researchers. The theme of the volume has not yet been specifically decided, but it is likely to include the subject of population projections of British ethnic groups.
For further information contact either Ceri Peach, School of Geography, University of Oxford, e-mail: ceri.peach@geog.ox.ac.uk or John Haskey, Office for National Statistics, e-mail: john.haskey@ons.gov.uk. (Note: This article is summarized from: BSPS News, British Society for Population Studies, Issue No. 58, August 1998, p. 4.

National Security Education Program 1999
Graduate International Fellowships Competition

    The Academy for Educational Development (AED) invites applications for the 1999 National Security Education Program (NSEP) Graduate International Fellowships competition. These fellowships enable U.S. graduate students to pursue specialization in area and language study or to add an important international dimension to their education. Created by Congress to address the need to increase the ability of U.S. citizens to communicate and compete globally, the NSEP embodies a recognition that the scope of national security has expanded to include not only the traditional concerns of protecting and promoting American well-being, but the new challenges of global society, including: sustainable development, environmental degradation, global disease and hunger, population growth and migration, and economic competitiveness.
    NSEP fellowships are intended to provide support through overseas study and limited domestic tuition to students who will pursue the study of languages, cultures, and world regions deemed critical to U.S. national security. Excluded explicitly is study of Western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Fellowships are awarded in a broad range of academic and professional disciplines including business, economics, history, international affairs, applied sciences and engineering, health and biomedical sciences, political science, and other social sciences. Award recipients incur a requirement to work for an agency of the federal government involved in national security affairs or in the field of higher education in an area of study for which the fellowship was awarded, in that order of precedence.
    Applicants must be U.S. citizens, enrolled in or applying to graduate programs in accredited U.S. colleges or universities located within the United States. All applicants must include formal study of a modern language other than English.
    Guidelines and application forms may be obtained from NSEP's web page at: http://www.aed.org/nsep. The deadline for applications is January 15, 1999.

"Kids Count" Measures the

Status of Children in States in the U.S.
"Kids Count" is a project of the Annie E. Casey Foundation that is a national and state-by-state
effort to track the status of children in the United States. This initiative publishes the annual Kids Count Data Book, which uses the best available data to measure the educational, social, economic, and physical well-being of children.
The 1998 edition of the Kids Count Pocket Guide includes 16 variables on which all 50 states are ranked (including the District of Columbia). A composite ranking is also produced. It shows that the five states with the highest (best) ranks for the well-being of children are: New Hampshire, Vermont, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Maine (in that order). The lowest ranking states (including Washington, D.C.) are: District of Columbia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, and New Mexico (with the lowest ranking state listed first). For more information contact: The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 701 St. Paul Stree, Baltimore, Maryland 21202, (410) 547-6600, web page: http://www.aecf.org

International Geographical Union Population Meetings Scheduled for 1999

Symposium of the Commission on Population and the Environment IGU on "Migration: Nation, Place, and Territorial Dynamics," April 19-25, 1999, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Contact: Dr. Dieter Heidemann, Departmento de Geografia, USP, Sao Paulo, Brazia, e-mail: heideman@usp.br

Symposium of the Commission on Population and the Environment, IGU on "Changing Households and Family Structures," September 23-27, 1999, Klagenfurt, Austria. Contact: Prof. Michael Sauberer, Institute de Geographie et des Etudes Regionales, Universite de Klagenfurt, Universitatsstrasse 65-67, A-9020 Klagenfurt, Carinthia, Austria, Tel 43-0 463/2700-312; Fax: 43-0463/2700-305.

Gerard Rushton wishes to announce the publication of the following article: J. Chakraborty and G. Rushton, "Projecting Grade-Specific Enrollments for School Catchment Areas: An Evaluation of Two Methods," Applied Geographic Studies, Vol. W, No. 3, 1998, pp. 157-175.

New Version of LandView Is Now Available

    A new and upgraded version of the Census Bureau's geographic information system known as LandView III is now available. It is an easy-to-use desktop mapping software package that also has a wide range of federal data. It combines information on the nation's geography from the Census Bureau's 1996 TIGER/Line Files and other federal databases with extracts from databases on Environmental Protection Agency-regulated sites and 1990 Census Population and Housing statistics.
The geographic data show, for example, roads, political and statistical boundaries and schools; the EPA information pinpoints the location of hazardous waste and other sites which EPA regulates, as well as the kinds and amounts of chemical emissions.
    The software permits users to draw a circle around any point on a map and generate a demographic profile of the area within that circle. It also can be used to generate thematic maps, search for map objects that fit certain criteria (e.g. all neighborhoods in a city with households above a particular income) and determine in which block group an address is located.
    Windows-based LandView III is an upgrade of the DOS-based LandView II released in 1995. It contains information on recently constructed streets and landmarks, an improved street-search routine, thematic-mapping and data-querying techniques, and a much greater volume of demographic data than previous versions.
    To preview LandView III, visit the U.S. Census Bureau's web site which is located at: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger. LandView III costs $99 per CD-ROM, or $549 for the entire 11-disc set. For more information call Paul Manka at (301) 457-1128 or contact him at his e-mail address: pmanka@census.gov. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 2/3, February 1998, p. 2.)

1990 U.S. Census Ancestry Data Now Available on Internet

The U.S. Census Bureau's web site now provides ancestry information by creating profiles using its 1990 "ancestry lookup tool." You can use the tool to profile any of 70 ancestry groups. At the national level the profile provides data on age, sex, marital status, fertility, household size, education, ability to speak English, labor force status, occupation, income, poverty, mortgage payments, and median rent.
The site also directs researchers to other Census Bureau sources of ancestry data, including the 1990 Census Lookup option. This feature allows you to access ancestry data for smaller geographical areas such as states, counties, cities, and census tracts. It displays data derived from the Census Bureau's Summary Tape Files 1 and 3. For more information contact: Population Information Office, (301) 457-2422 or population@census.gov. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 5/6, May-June 1998, p. 8.)

Spatial Aspects of Federal Spending in FY1997

The federal government distributed $1.4 trillion in domestic grants, benefits, subsidies, salaries, and goods and services purchased in fiscal year 1997. The states (including the District of Columbia) that received the largest per capita amounts were: the District of Columbia, Virginia, Alaska, Maryland, New Mexico, and Hawaii (in that order). New York City and Los Angeles County each received more federal money than 42 states. In per capita terms, however, New York ranked only 522^nd and Los Angeles ranked 1,320^th among the nations 3,137 counties and county equivalents.
This information comes from the following two publications: Federal Expenditures by State for Fiscal Year 1997 and Consolidated Federal Funds Report, Fiscal Year 1997, County Areas. They are available on the Internet at: www.census.gov/govs/www/cffr97.html. Print copies are also available for $15 from Gerard Keffer at (301) 457-1522 or gkeffer@census.gov. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 5/6, May-June 1998, p. 1.)

About One-Third of State Revenues Generated
Both by State Sales and Income Taxes in 1997

The nation's state governments collected $443.5 billion in tax revenues in 1997. About one-third ($147 billion) came from general sales taxes and a second third ($145 billion) derived from state income taxes. For the nation as a whole, these state (not including federal taxes) taxes came to $1,660 for every man, woman, and child in the country.
On a per capita basis, total state taxes were highest in Alaska, Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Delaware, and Michigan. They were lowest in New Hampshire, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, and Wyoming. The highest state income tax is in Massachusetts. Seven states have no state income tax: Alaska, Washington, Nevada, Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Florida. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 7, July 1998, p. 5.)

About the American Community Survey

    The American Community Survey (ACS) will be an on-going monthly household survey that will eventually (by the year 2010) replace the Census Bureau's long form-questionnaire. It is designed to provide more up-to-date information than the decennial censuses that historically have been conducted in the U.S. Current plans call for the continuing enumeration of a census every ten years, but after 2010 only the short-form questionnaire will be used.
    The survey, as part of the government's Continuous Measurement System, is an attempt to collect accurate and timely information. It will allow for an accurate and up-to-date profile of America's communities every year, not just every 10 years. It will provide estimates of housing, social, and economic characteristics every year for all states and for all cities, counties, metropolitan areas, and population groups of 65,000 persons or more. For lesser populated areas it will take two to five years to sample the same number of households as sampled in the decennial census. For example, for rural areas and city neighborhoods or population groups of less than 15,000 people it will take five years to accumulate a sample size equal to that of the decennial census.
    The way the sample will work is based on the notion that the Census Bureau will select a systematic sample of addresses from its most current Master Address File for the entire United States. Each monthly sample will be selected without repeating any address for a five year period. Thus, no specific address will receive an ACS questionnaire more than once in any five-year period.
The Census Bureau has just completed its two-year trial period. Full implementation nationwide is planned to begin in 2003 and continue into the foreseeable future.
    A new CD-ROM with community-profile data provides users their first opportunity to look at the Census Bureau's ACS for four test sites: Portland, Oregon; Rockland County, New York; Fulton County, Pennsylvania; and Brevard County Florida. This trial CD is available free. For more information see: American Community Survey: 1996 Site Data CD-ROM, free from (301) 457-4100 or http://www.census.gov/cms/www. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 8, August 1998, p. 4.)

Do Women Seeking An Education Delay Childbirth?

A recent U.S. Census Bureau report entitled Fertility of American Women: June 1995 suggests that the answer is yes. It shows that the more education a woman has, the more likely she is to be childless. For example, women who are not high school graduates are more likely to have children than women with a bachelor's degree or higher. The difference is most striking for women 25 to 34 years of age. About 15 percent of the women in this age group who did not graduate from high school were childless; whereas for women with a bachelor's degree the proportion increased to 57 percent, and for women with a graduate or professional degree it rose to 63 percent.
The study also documents that women in the 25 to 34 year age class living in metropolitan areas, especially in central cites, were more likely to be childless (39 percent) than women living outside metropolitan areas (22 percent). Also, women who were employed were more likely to be childless than women not in the labor force; and women working in the managerial and professional occupations were more likely to be childless than women employed as operators, fabricators, or laborers. For more information please contact the following address: www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/fertility. (Census and You, Vol. 33, No. 2/3, February/March 1998, p. 4.)

New Classification System for Measuring the U.S. Economy

Population geographers working with labor force data should be warned that the U.S. has a new system for classifying industries. It is called the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), and it takes effect with the first releases from the 1997 Economic Census. This system replaces the old Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. You will need to see the new manual to make sense of the industry codes when making comparisons between the new and old codes. The NAICS manual is entitled the North American Industry Classification System Untied States, 1997. The get a copy call the Census Bureau's Customer Services at (301) 457-4100 or check the following web site: www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.

Is the Population Explosion Over?

    A recent string of articles in national publications argues that the rapid population growth of the past 40 years is over and the real crisis now is low fertility. Some warn that the world may soon experience a population "implosion" or decline. However, a front-page article in the Population Reference Bureau's Population Today argues that now there are really two distinct "worlds" of population growth: those countries with fertility rates at or below two children per couple and those with higher fertility rates.
    The "two-children-or-fewer world" includes Europe, the United States, Canada, Japan, and a few rapidly industrializing countries such as South Korea and Thailand. China, because of its rigorous population control policy, also has a very low fertility rate. By contrast, the "rapid growth world" comprises most of the countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where fertility is greater than two children per couple. In these countries, which are home to more than one-half of the world's population, women average approximately four children. In sub-Saharan Africa, women average about six children. Even the anticipated increase in AIDS cases in Africa would only have a minimal impact on Africa's future population size.
    For most developing countries, rapid population growth is not over. The real, not the imagined, end of the "population explosion" worldwide will be determined by how quickly and how much countries invest in programs to reduce infant mortality, educate women, and provide family planning. (Population Today, Vol. 25, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 1-2.)

World "Refugees" and "Internal Displacements"

    A recent report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) notes that while the number of refugees worldwide has dropped from 18.2 million in 1993 to 13.2 million in 1997, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has risen to more than 25 million. The latter is the result of about 35 civil wars and communal conflicts raging around the world. Refugees are defined as persons fleeing from one country to another. IDPs are persons who are fleeing their homes but staying within the borders of their home countries. This is a significant distinction because IDPs are not protected by international refugee laws and have no access to international assistance programs. Many are trapped in war zones and not allowed to cross borders into safer territories. Some major groups of IDPs include about 4 million Sudanese, 1.2 million Afghans, and 1.2 million Angolans.
    The world's largest estimated refugee populations are in Iran (1.4 million Afghans and 600,000 Iraqis), Pakistan (1.2 million Afghans), and Germany (1.3 million, mainly Turks). The major countries of origin of refugees registered with the UNHCR are Afghanistan (2.7 million, Liberia (778,000), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (673,000). The UNHCR's report is its first publication to highlight the plight of millions of people who are stateless or whose nationality is disputed. The number of stateless people has increased significantly in the past three years. Along with the Palestinians, the world's largest group of stateless people, the report examines lesser-known groups such as the Romas (or gypsies) in the Czech and Slovak republics, Kurds in Syria, and Rohingyas (a mainly
Moslem minority group of two million) in western Myanmar (former Burma).
    For more information see: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, The State of the World's Refugees 1997-1998: A Humanitarian Agenda, New York: Oxford University Press, 298 pages, $19.10, 1-800-451-7556; web site: http//www.unhcr.ch. (This a article is excerpted from: Population Today, Vol. 25, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 1-2.)

Thomas D. Boswell NON-PROFIT ORG
Department of Geography & Regional Studies U.S. POSTAGE
School of International Studies PAID
University of Miami MIAMI FL
Coral Gables, Florida 33124-2060 PERMIT #438